This afternoon, the Federal Reserve confirmed what many economists had predicted by raising their official overnight rate by a quarter of a percent to 5%. Given the disruptions to the US and global banking sectors over recent weeks, some had anticipated that the Fed would pause in order to gauge what impacts, if any, would there be on the real economy. At the end of the day, the Fed has a job to do and that is to return inflation back closer to its target of 2% and today’s decision (which was unanimous across voting FOMC members) illustrates that J. Powell and crew believe the job isn’t done yet.

 

Looking ahead, the Fed didn’t exactly commit to further rate hikes and removed the reference from the previous policy statement that “ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate” and replaced it with “some additional policy firming may be appropriate”. The fact that there is no guidance of pausing links back to the fact that the Fed does not see a frail US economy and highlighted how job gains “have picked up in recent months” and that inflation “remains elevated”. Given the latter comments, it is curious as to how markets initially read this decision and statement as dovish.

 

In terms of banking developments, the FOMC stated that the U.S. banking system is sound and resilient, although any effects on hiring and inflation from tightening in conditions brought about by recent developments is uncertain. In the so-called “dot plot”, Fed officials are forecasting one more quarter-point rate hike by the end of the year. In other words, as much as some in the market believe that rate cuts are coming in the second half, the Fed doesn’t agree – at least for now. This suggests that economic activity is likely to be biased to the weak side in the second half and equities may not have fully priced that in. We still see bonds as the safer move, but current pricing is rich after the sharp drop in bond yields over the last couple of weeks.

 

On behalf of the Pyle Group, have a good evening.

Andrew Pyle

 

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These are the personal opinions of Andrew Pyle and the Pyle Group and may not necessarily reflect those of CIBC World Markets Inc.